While signs of improvement are happening, I feel that things haven't really changed. If it happens, it's going to involve a lot of people suddenly going back to work.
And on the one hand, it's nice that it stabalized where there's still 90% employment and the credit and stock markets still exist. On the other ... this is still pretty crappy. And the only way we can get out from under the mountain of national debt is to grow, and we're not.
10% unemployment does not equal 90% employment; there are other categories that all add up to "wants and needs a job, and of working age, but the Labor Department has a whole host of excuses not to count them as being in the labor market." Add all those up (myself included) and 10% unemployment means about 78% employed.
Watch the fireworks if it hits 75%. Or, if the debt ceiling talks completely collapse and the August SSDI checks don't go out, "fireworks" won't even begin to describe what'll happen -- tens of thousands of out of work combat-ready and heavily armed Afghan and Iraq war veterans, and about half a million other people on top of that, only count as "not unemployed" because social workers are using SSDI as the dumping ground for the long-term unemployed.
This is what's so evil about the Econ Board definition of "recession" - as long as US corporate profits are still rising, as long as they're not receding, the US could be at 99.9% unemployed and it still wouldn't count as a recession.
That's how I'm reading it, which makes it worse than it was before because, while the same number of people are actively hurting, more people are uncomfortable or afraid for their future prospects.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2011-07-11 04:46 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-07-11 05:24 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-07-11 08:29 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-07-11 08:42 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-07-12 04:26 am (UTC)Watch the fireworks if it hits 75%. Or, if the debt ceiling talks completely collapse and the August SSDI checks don't go out, "fireworks" won't even begin to describe what'll happen -- tens of thousands of out of work combat-ready and heavily armed Afghan and Iraq war veterans, and about half a million other people on top of that, only count as "not unemployed" because social workers are using SSDI as the dumping ground for the long-term unemployed.
This is what's so evil about the Econ Board definition of "recession" - as long as US corporate profits are still rising, as long as they're not receding, the US could be at 99.9% unemployed and it still wouldn't count as a recession.
no subject
Date: 2011-07-12 05:36 pm (UTC)I am reminded of how everyone complained about the 'jobless recovery' in 2004 or so. When unemployment was a third lower than what it is now. D:
no subject
Date: 2011-07-11 09:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2011-07-12 05:58 pm (UTC)