Agreed -- predicting what the price of oil will be this November hinges mainly on understanding which way the Saudis will jump (since they are the only OPEC producer with the capacity to increase output or the political will to reduce it). The futures markets are in the same sort of difficult position as those betting on future US short term interest rates. A small group of people make the decision rather than a market, so it's all about understanding their likely incentives and behavior (ok -- Alan Greenspan tries harder to be predictable than Ali Al-Naimi).
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timeasmymeasure
yep -- cartels do make predictions much harder
Date: 2004-07-15 05:47 pm (UTC)