A meaningless and unscientific poll. Yay!

[rowyn]

[Poll #321072]

Comments

[level-head.livejournal.com]

Amusingly, a zero [growth], zero [goodnews], and 5% [inflation] still gets a Bush win.

===|==============/ Level Head

It gets worse at the boundries

[telnar.livejournal.com]

I tried -5.25% real GDP growth in Q1-3 of 2004, 2.5% inflation, and 0 quarters of growth greater than 3.2% and still got a dead heat (Republicans getting 50% of the vote). I don't think that growth has been that bad for 3 quarters since before the 1973-4 recession (maybe going all the way back to 1938, but I don't have older numbers handy). Somehow I suspect that this equation overweights inflation relative to growth because of lack of data during periods of very low growth.