Terror

[rowyn]

Getting just what they wanted.

"CNN also has obtained an al Qaeda document that spells out the terrorist group's plan to separate Spain from the U.S.-led coalition on Iraq.
...
"The strategy spelled out in the document calls for using terrorist attacks to oust Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's Partido Popular from power and replace it with the Socialists.
...
"'We think the Spanish government will not stand more than two blows, or three at the most, before it will be forced to withdraw because of the public pressure on it,' the al Qaeda document says.
...
"the Socialists unseat[ed] the Popular Party three days after near-simultaneous bombings of four trains killed 200 and shocked the nation.
...
"Prime Minister-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Monday he wants the 1,300 Spanish troops in Iraq to return home by June 30 if the United Nations 'doesn't take control of Iraq.'

"'I think Spain's participation in the war has been a total error,' he said."

I feel sick.

Comments

[brennabat.livejournal.com]

I never quite felt how effective terrorisim could be until 9/11 and the Spain railway bombings. It had struck me as a rather angry, excessive, and largely unsuccessful means to manipulate individuals or groups. Not to mention a fine way of removing support for your own group in the process. I had never seen a truly effective use of terrorisim prior to these events -- not that I was going out of my way to find one. But now I see that it does, in a way, work. It may even be quite cost effective -- how much funding could it have taken to have destroyed that train? I wonder, too, if the alternatives (whatever they may be) would have been as effective or as cheap. It seems unfortunately lucrative, at least to those who don't mind sacrificing lives for their cause.

[rowyn]

I've been thinking about this, particularly the notion of "Was 9/11 a 'success' from a terrorist's perspective?"

If the main purpose of those four airplane hijackings was to prove that America could be hurt, then yes, it was successful. But I don't think that a terrorist's purpose is quite that straightforward. "Proving we can be hurt" is less the goal than what they perceive as the means to the goal. The goal for al Qaeda, I think, is something along these lines:

1. Crusade: Killing the infidels is a way to win more ground/power/influence/converts for Islam (In particular, to create more Muslims of their own extremist and vicious bent). I'm not sure if this is working or not. Certainly America isn't turning to Islam in droves in order to escape the wrath of Allah and al Qaeda. :) But al Qaeda may be growing in membership and influence as a result of their perceived success in hurting America.

2. End American Interference: I think this is a primary goal for al Qaeda -- to get us to stop supporting Israel and to stop meddling, in general, in the Middle East. Here, 9/11 is (so far) having the exact opposite effect. America has become more imperialist and more likely to use force and exert our influence over the affairs of foreign countries.

There are various side effects -- increased survellaince of American people and a lessening of freedoms -- that many Americans aren't happy with. But I don't think that Americans being less free is of much consequence to the terrorists. They don't care if we're a democratic non-Muslim nation or a totalitarian non-Muslim nation. As long as we're not their particular breed of Muslim, and as long as we are not an isolationist state, al Qaeda is going to continue to see us as an enemy and a threat.

Given that America has become more imperialist, I'm not sure that the world of 2004 is a better place, from al Qaeda's perspective, than the world in 2000. They've demonstrated that they have power, yes. But that they have enough pwoer, or that they can use that power to achieve their goals -- I don't think 9/11 proved that.

The situation in Spain is much more scary for just this reason. It is not clear that the terrorist attack actually changed the outcome of the election. However, there is clearly a perception, in the hearts and minds of millions, that it not only changed the outcome of the election, but changed it to what al Qaeda wanted.

That perceived success -- "Look, we did this and we got exactly what we wanted" -- is going to work in al Qaeda's favor.

This "war" is far from over, and it's hard to call winners and losers even for the individual battles. In many ways, so far, both al Qaeda and America are losing the things most important to us. :/

Update after Spain's orders to pull out...

[level-head.livejournal.com]

And now it seems, based on recent events, that al Qaida has indeed achieved their objective with Spain. It is hard, in light of the timing of bin Ladin's offer and Zapatero's order, to see it any other way.

Moreover, Americans now live with a little taste of the fear prevalent in Israel. We have been hit, we expect to be hit again, we listen to threat levels and reports of vague plots against us, and we are furiously looking for someone to blame. And we talk about bin Ladin all the time.

More than anything else, we have validated his existence as a world power. I'd call that success from his perspective. It is ... unfortunate.

===|==============/ Level Head