Terror

[rowyn]

Getting just what they wanted.

"CNN also has obtained an al Qaeda document that spells out the terrorist group's plan to separate Spain from the U.S.-led coalition on Iraq.
...
"The strategy spelled out in the document calls for using terrorist attacks to oust Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's Partido Popular from power and replace it with the Socialists.
...
"'We think the Spanish government will not stand more than two blows, or three at the most, before it will be forced to withdraw because of the public pressure on it,' the al Qaeda document says.
...
"the Socialists unseat[ed] the Popular Party three days after near-simultaneous bombings of four trains killed 200 and shocked the nation.
...
"Prime Minister-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Monday he wants the 1,300 Spanish troops in Iraq to return home by June 30 if the United Nations 'doesn't take control of Iraq.'

"'I think Spain's participation in the war has been a total error,' he said."

I feel sick.

Comments

[zaimoni.livejournal.com]

The annoying thing is that Al Qaeda conned themselves into thinking they changed the election result.

The Aznar government was at 25% approval over its Iraq involvement ~July 2003, and I've seen no normal-news reports indicating improvement.

Also, pulling out in June 2004 is a non-action: we are planning to be out then.

[rowyn]

If al Qaeda can convince other people they've changed the course of the election, then that will be an even bigger victory for them. CNN said that the war was unpopular even before the attack, but that "Before Thursday, the Popular Party had been favored to win by a comfortable margin."

Do you have links to something from before the attack that indicated the Socialists were in a better position prior to the bombings?

[zaimoni.livejournal.com]

The following post-mortem is interesting:

The PSOE made considerable gains before Mar. 11, as no voting intention survey released in March gave the PP an outright majority. Two Sigma Dos/El Mundo studies illustrated the start of a trend. From a maximum number of congressmen of 177 in a Mar. 2 poll, the PP went down to 173 four days later. Conversely, the Socialists "gained" five seats in the same span, from 139 to 144.

So there is no unanimous consensus that Aznar's political party was clearly ahead coming into the election.

Archaic links:
Aznar's visible nadir was in March 2003. However, ~10% of Spain's population did not feel the need to work more compelling than physically protesting Aznar's support of the U.S. on Feb. 15, 2003. That's not going away.

It's more complicated than that

[telnar.livejournal.com]

Aznar's government was popular prior to the attack even if it's Iraq policy wasn't (Spain's recent economic growth of 2.6% is far above the European average). If the attack increased the priority that the average citizen of Spain placed on the decision to be in Iraq, then that was a victory for Al Qaeda.

Incidentally, I would be amazed if all US troops were to leave Iraq by June. Declaring the Iraqi government sovereign is a lot different from having finished providing it the necessary resources to protect and run the country and the new government will almost certainly request that the coalition troops remain once it has that decision.

That said, I'm far from sure that the Spanish troops will be gone. Incidentally, they represent a far lesser commitment as a fraction of the Spanish military than the US or British deployments (and is only half as large as Poland's commitment). One sign that the Socialists are waffling is that they said that they intend to withdraw unless there is a UN resolution supporting the occupation (wording on this varies depending on the quote, so it's unclear how much UN involvement is actually required). Since there will almost certainly be a UN resolution of some sort once the new government becomes sovereign, if the Socialists want to stay (or restructure their commitment to Iraq), there will be an excuse (a past Socialist government of Spain had campaigned on a promise to withdraw from NATO -- you've probably noticed that Spain is still in NATO).

Re: It's more complicated than that

[zaimoni.livejournal.com]

(Spain's recent economic growth of 2.6% is far above the European average).

Almost as high as Ireland's ;)

However, the European average is being dragged down by collateral damage from the Euro. Both France and Germany were critically dependent on currency exchange risk to prevent corporations from relocating jobs elsewhere.